The Resources Effect
See how a fairer return from Australia's natural resources could build a national Future Fund for all of us.
Australia's natural resources belong to the Australian people. 34Us supports responsible companies making fair profits, but believes the public should receive a stronger long-term return when non-renewable resources are extracted and sold.
This slider estimates the additional percentage of resource export earnings that could be directed into an Australian Future Fund under a stronger public-return framework.
Estimated annual Future Fund contribution = resource export earnings base × selected public return rate
At 5%, estimated annual contribution to an Australian Future Fund could be
AUD 19.15 billion
Based on resource & energy export earnings of AUD 383 billion.
Scenarios
1% public return
Conservative
AUD 3.83 billion
A modest public return designed to show the lower end of the possible contribution range.
2.5% public return
Moderate
AUD 9.57 billion
A stronger contribution that still leaves most project revenue with operators and investors.
5% public return
Strong
AUD 19.15 billion
A serious national wealth-building contribution for a protected Australian Future Fund.
10% public return
Norway-Style Ambition
AUD 38.30 billion
A high-ambition benchmark showing the scale of what a stronger public-return framework could mean.
Norway is used as a benchmark for public value capture, not as a copy-and-paste model for Australia.
Estimated Annual Future Fund Contribution
Future Fund Earnings Use
Projected Future Fund Growth (AUD bn)
Assumes 5% annual investment return, 70% reinvested, over 30 years.
What could the Future Fund support over time?
This is based on investment earnings over time, not spending all resource contributions immediately.
Housing
- • Affordable housing investment
- • Regional housing infrastructure
- • Key worker housing
- • Crisis accommodation
Health Care
- • Hospital capacity
- • Medicare and bulk-billing support
- • Mental health services
- • Regional clinics
Education
- • Public schools
- • TAFE and skills
- • University research
- • Regional and remote education
National Resilience
- • Infrastructure
- • Energy transition
- • Disaster preparation
- • Cost-of-living shock support
Assumptions and Methodology
This dashboard is an estimate for public discussion. It uses resource export earnings as a simple scale-of-opportunity measure. Resource export earnings are not the same as company profit, royalties, taxable income, or government revenue.
A final policy would require commodity-by-commodity modelling, legal review, state and federal cooperation, and independent economic analysis.
Current Calculation Assumption
- Resource export earnings base
- AUD 383 billion
- Selected public return rate
- 5%
- Estimated annual contribution
- AUD 19.15 billion
- Annual investment return
- 5%
- Reinvestment percentage
- 70%
- Public benefit distribution
- 30%
- Projection years
- 30
- Last updated
- 1970-01-01
Why Norway Is The Benchmark
Norway allows companies to profit from resource extraction while also capturing a strong public return for long-term national benefit. 34Us is not proposing that Australia copy Norway exactly. The principle is simpler: when non-renewable public resources are extracted and sold, the public should receive a fair long-term return.
Official resource and energy data
Australia Resources and Energy Quarterly
Department of Industry, Science and Resources publication tracking Australia's resource and energy export earnings and forecasts.
Official export earnings forecast
Australia resource and energy export earnings forecast
Used as the scale-of-opportunity measure for annual resource and energy export earnings.
Sovereign wealth fund benchmark
Norway Government Pension Fund Global
The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund built from petroleum revenues. Used here as a public-value-capture benchmark, not a copy-and-paste model.
Official petroleum revenue reference
Norwegian petroleum revenues
Norwegian government data on petroleum revenues flowing to the state and the Government Pension Fund Global.
Petroleum tax reference
Norwegian petroleum tax system
Outline of the Norwegian petroleum tax framework that underpins long-term public returns from non-renewable resources.
What Would Need To Be Resolved
Fair cooperation now, stronger public-interest action later.
Want a fairer Australia?
Support three practical policies for all of us.