The Housing Effect
See how redirecting future negative gearing incentives toward new homes could support housing supply for all of us.
34Us supports grandfathered negative gearing reform: existing investors keep their current arrangements, while future negative gearing benefits would apply only to newly built homes. The goal is to direct public tax support toward adding housing supply.
Existing negatively geared investments are grandfathered. This slider models the share of future negative gearing benefit that would be linked to newly built homes.
Estimated housing supply support value = annual negative gearing tax benefit × selected redirected share
At 50%, estimated housing supply support could be
AUD 5.00 billion
Based on an estimated annual negative gearing tax benefit of AUD 10 billion.
Scenarios
25% redirected
Cautious transition
AUD 2.50 billion
A gradual reform path designed to reduce disruption while beginning to shift incentives toward new housing.
50% redirected
Balanced reform
AUD 5.00 billion
A stronger shift that protects existing investors while directing more future tax support toward new homes.
75% redirected
Supply-focused reform
AUD 7.50 billion
A major reform that makes new housing supply the central purpose of future negative gearing support.
100% redirected
Full future reform
AUD 10.00 billion
All future negative gearing concessions apply only to newly built homes, while existing arrangements remain grandfathered.
Estimated Housing Supply Support
Future Negative Gearing Direction
Projected 10-Year Housing Supply Support (AUD bn)
Cumulative housing supply support at 50% redirected share over 1, 3, 5, and 10 years.
What could this support over time?
New homes
- • More investor demand for newly built homes
- • More build-to-rent projects
- • More apartment and townhouse supply
- • More regional new-build investment
First-home buyers
- • Less investor pressure on existing homes
- • Better chance to compete for established homes
- • More new housing options
- • Reduced speculative demand over time
Renters
- • More new rental supply
- • Better long-term vacancy rates
- • More purpose-built rental housing
- • Less pressure in high-demand areas if supply increases
Construction and jobs
- • More demand for new housing projects
- • More construction work
- • More trades and apprenticeships
- • More infrastructure-linked development
Assumptions and Methodology
This dashboard uses an estimated annual negative gearing tax benefit and applies a selected redirection share to show how much tax support could be linked to newly built homes. Negative gearing tax benefits are not the same as direct government spending.
Negative gearing tax benefits are not the same as direct government spending. The actual fiscal and housing impact would depend on investor behaviour, rental supply, tax design, construction capacity, interest rates, planning rules, and market conditions.
A final policy would require official tax expenditure data, housing market modelling, rental market modelling, construction supply modelling, and independent economic analysis.
Current Calculation Assumption
- Annual negative gearing tax benefit
- AUD 10 billion
- Selected redirected share
- 50%
- Estimated housing supply support
- AUD 5.00 billion
- Projection years
- 10
- Last updated
- 1970-01-01
Tax expenditure reference
Treasury tax expenditure data
Australian Treasury Tax Expenditures and Insights Statement covering negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions.
Independent budget modelling
Parliamentary Budget Office housing tax policy modelling
PBO costings and policy analysis on negative gearing, capital gains, and housing-related tax measures.
Official housing statistics
Australian Bureau of Statistics housing data
ABS data on dwelling approvals, housing finance, residential construction, and rental conditions.
Housing assistance reference
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare housing assistance data
AIHW data on social housing, homelessness services, and housing assistance in Australia.
Housing credit reference
Reserve Bank of Australia housing and credit data
RBA statistics on housing credit, lending, and the residential property market.
What Would Need To Be Resolved
Help create more homes — don't just compete for the ones that already exist.
Want a fairer Australia?
Support three practical policies for all of us.